KGI Asia Commentary

2024.03.27 09:00

Hang Seng Index rose 144 points on Tuesday

The Hang Seng Index rose 144 points or 0.9% to 16,618 on Tuesday. HSTECH rose 34 points or 1.0% to 3,471 and HSCEI rose 70 points or 1.2% to 5,825. Daily market turnover was HK$108.6bn.

S&P 500 ends lower ahead of Fed officials' speech and key inflation data

The S&P 500 pared gains on Tuesday as investors digested a drop in U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest level since November, ahead of further speeches from Federal Reserve officials and a key inflation report later this week. The S&P 500 fell 0.28% to close at 5,203.58 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.42% to close at 16,315.70 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 31.31 points, or 0.08%, to close at 39,282.33 points. Nvidia closed down 2.6%. But Seagate Technology rose 6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the data storage company to overweight from Hold and raised its target price to $115 from $73. Tesla shares rose 3% after the electric car maker will offer U.S. customers a free one-month trial of its driver-assistance technology "Full Self-Driving." The share price of express delivery giant United Parcel Service fall by 8% despite the fact that the company expects comprehensive revenue in 2026 to be better than expected. The company is actively cutting costs and seizing market share. Trump Media & Technology Group Inc., the parent company of former President Trump's social app Truth Social, rose 16% after merging with Digital World Acquisition. In other news, Krispy Kreme's shares rose 39% after it struck a deal with McDonald's to sell donuts in McDonald's restaurants and plans to expand its operations nationwide by the end of 2026.

U.S. economic data was mixed

The U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 104.7 in March from a revised 104.8, the lowest since November 2023. Meanwhile, U.S. durable goods orders rose for the first time in three months. Data from the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed bookings for all durable goods - items expected to last at least three years - rose 1.4% after a 6.9% decline in January. Bloomberg forecast a median increase of 1%. Looking ahead, markets are awaiting further comments from Fed officials as well as a key inflation report later this week.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK4.52bn on Tuesday, of which CSOP HS TECH (3033) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.81bn; followed by Tencent (700). Meituan (3690) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.31bn, followed by Yankuang (1171).

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Tencent
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Tencent 4Q23 revenue amounted to RMB155.2bn, increased 7% yoy and 0.4% qoq, slightly missed market expectation. But net profit comes at RMB42.6bn, matched market expectation. In terms of segment business, the value-added service revenue was at RMB69.1bn, fell by 2% yoy. The international market games were higher than expected, while the local market games were lower than expected. The latter was mainly affected by the reduced contribution of "Honor of Kings" and " Peacekeeper Elite ". Meanwhile, the growth rates of the other two business segments were significantly better. Revenue from the online advertising business during the period increased by 21% yoy to RMB29.8bn, which was better than expected, propelled by advertising demand for Video Accounts, as well as the ongoing upgrade of its advertising platform. All categories except for automotive saw a year-on-year increase in advertising spending with the Tencent, with particularly notable growth in Internet services, healthcare and consumer goods categories. Revenue from FinTech and Business Services also increased by 15% to RMB 54.4bn, but was slightly lower than expected. During the period, gross profit margin increased by 7 percentage points year-on-year to 50%, thanks to the revenue structure tilting towards high-margin businesses and cost control. In the medium to long term, Tencent's moat remains, and its gross profit margin expansion is also a catalyst. Target price: $370; Stop- Loss price: $260.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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