Daily focus：Tongcheng Travel（780）
Tongcheng Travel's Q4 2024 results showed resilience despite a challenging market environment, with revenue and margins exceeding expectations. The company enhanced monetization through reduced user subsidies and improved Value-Added Services (VAS) sales, leading to increased take rates for hotel and transportation services. For 2025, Tongcheng anticipates high-teens growth in Core OTA revenue, driven by continued focus on monetization. Domestic air passenger volume is expected to grow 5-10% YoY in Q1 2025, while hotel Average Daily Rates (ADRs) remain slightly down. The company's outbound business is expected to sustain robust growth and reach breakeven in 2025. Margin expansion is anticipated due to disciplined subsidy management. Overall, Tongcheng's strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies are poised to drive both revenue growth and profitability in 2025, supporting a positive outlook for investors. The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a lifted price target, reflecting its strong growth prospects.
Latest weekly initial jobless claims rise slightly
The latest data shows US weekly jobless claims increased marginally by 2,000 to reach 223,000 for the week ending March 15, 2025, coming in slightly below economists' forecasts of 224,000. This minor uptick suggests the labor market remained relatively stable in March, despite growing concerns about the economic outlook. Continuing claims, which track people receiving unemployment benefits for longer periods, rose by 33,000 to 1.892 million during the week ending March 8. While layoffs remain historically low, claims have been fluctuating within a 203,000-242,000 range throughout 2025, indicating a pattern of low firing but also cooling hiring activity. The four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly variations, increased slightly by 750 to 227,000. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has described the current job market as "a low firing and low hiring situation," though policymakers remain vigilant for any "meaningful increase in layoffs" as unemployed workers are taking longer to find new jobs. This data becomes particularly significant amid rising trade tensions and deep government spending cuts that could potentially darken the labor market outlook in coming months.
Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net outflow of HK$410mn on Thursday, of which Alibaba (9988) recorded the largest net inflow of HK$850mn, followed by China Mobile (0941); Tencent (0700) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$3.33bn, followed by Ping An of China (2318).
Hong Kong stock market faced profit-taking pressure today. The HSI opened 110 points lower and then extended its decline, falling 486 points or 2% at mid-day to 23,733. The HSCEI fell 182 points or 2% to 8,767. The HSTECH fell 171 points or 2.9% to 5,664. The total market turnover was HK$175.7bn today. CKH (0001)'s basic profit fell 10.6% last year, with a final dividend of HK$1.514 and share price drop of 3.8%. Henderson Land Development (0012)'s underlying profit rose slightly by 0.7% yoy last year, with a final dividend of HK$1.3 and a share price drop of 2.2%. Nike's profit fell 32% last quarter due to poor sales in the Chinese market. Topsports (6110) fell 5.1% at mid-day.
Source: KGI Investment Strategy
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Tariff war continue, coupled with the low reading in U.S. CPI and PPI in February. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is imminent, exacerbating market concerns about the U.S. economy entering...