Daily Investment Strategy
Daily focus：China Resources Beverage（2460）
China Resources Beverage reported first-half 2025 results that fell short of market expectations. Revenue stood at approximately RMB 6.21 billion, down 18.5% year-on-year, mainly dragged by a sharp decline in packaged drinking water revenue. During the period, the company’s net profit was RMB 805 million, down about 28.7% year-on-year. Gross margin fell from 49.3% in the same period last year to 46.7%, and net margin also decreased from 15.2% to 13.3%, reflecting pressure on profitability. The market also expects the company to continue facing operational pressures in the second half of the year, with full-year profit forecast to decline by nearly 30%, mainly due to increased investments in marketing and channel adjustments.
Political pressure threatens Fed independence as S&P hits new high
The independence of the Federal Reserve System is facing unprecedented political pressure, becoming a key market concern. With the S&P 500 index rising 0.8% and setting a new record close of 6,502, investor expectations for a September rate cut have soared to 97.4%. However, President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates, threatening to fire members of the Board of Governors and nominating supporters to the board. The Senate is reviewing the confirmation hearing of Trump's nominee, Milan, with Democratic lawmakers questioning his ability to act independently of presidential directives. This unprecedented political interference has raised concerns about the central bank's credibility and could lead to increased financial market volatility over the next six months, particularly if the Fed's decisions begin to deviate from traditional Taylor rule guidelines.
Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HK$710mn on Thursday, with UBTECH Robotics (9880) receiving the largest inflow of HK$830mn, followed by Xiaomi Group (1810). On the other hand, SMIC (0981) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$470mn, followed by Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347).
Leung Kai Tong is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to: https://apps.sfc.https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/ADU276/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.
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