Daily Investment Strategy
Daily focus：Haidilao (6862)
Catering revenue in October and November recorded mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, an improvement from the low growth in the middle of the year, indicating a gradual recovery in offline dine-in demand. With the decline in e-commerce subsidies and the hot pot industry entering its seasonal peak, customer traffic and table turnover rates for related businesses are expected to improve sequentially. Specifically, the company's table turnover rate in November was similar to the same period last year, and the gross profit margin and operating profit margin in Q3 2025 were slightly higher than in the first half of the year, reflecting a gradual recovery in the profitability of individual stores. Meanwhile, the company continues to promote store format adjustments and increase the proportion of takeaway business, with full-year takeaway revenue expected to approach RMB 2 billion, providing additional support for overall revenue growth and cash flow.
Unexpectedly Weak US Employment Data
The latest US employment data released was unexpectedly weak, triggering market concerns about a hard landing for the economy. Although the number of new non-farm payroll jobs in November was slightly better than expected, the unemployment rate surged to 4.6%, a new high since 2021. This macroeconomic signal, while reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026 and establishing a trend of monetary policy shifting from "anti-inflation" to "employment protection," also challenges the trading logic of "bad news is good news." The market is currently in a sensitive period of betting on the speed of economic recession and the strength of policy easing. If the data deteriorates further, the risk of downward revisions in corporate profits may outweigh the benefits of loose liquidity, and funds may continue to flow out of the energy and cyclical sectors in the short term, seeking defensive allocations in the bond market.
Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HK$0.8 billion on Tuesday, with Xiaomi Group (1810) seeing the largest net inflow at HK$6.3 billion, followed by XPeng Motors (9868). On the other hand, Alibaba (9988) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$630 million, followed by China Mobile (941).
Leung Kai Tong is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/ADU276/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.
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