Daily Investment Strategy
Daily focus：Li Ning (2331)
2025 profits will be supported by cost reductions and government subsidies rather than core growth. 4Q25 performance was lackluster, and sales have not improved since the beginning of 2026. The path to profit recovery in 2026 remains unclear due to increased Olympic-related expenses. Facing sluggish consumer sentiment and fierce competition, the increasingly sophisticated discount strategy will put pressure on gross margins. In the absence of clear catalysts, market uncertainty and execution risks remain the core challenges.
AI Valuation Repricing Under the Shadow of Chip Blockade
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,944 points on Thursday, with risk appetite recovering but the focus shifting to China's restrictions on the import of Nvidia's H200 chips. Reports indicate that Chinese customs have been informed that H200 imports are prohibited, and companies are advised against non-essential purchases, raising market concerns about disruptions to the supply schedule for AI servers and cloud capital expenditures. As the H200 is a high-end training chip, if the restrictions continue, Nvidia's visibility in the Chinese market will further decrease, dragging down valuation assumptions for upstream HBM memory, advanced packaging, and downstream computing power leasing, while also pushing up geopolitical discounts for tech stocks.
Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net outflow of HK$1.52bn on Thursday, with Alibaba-W (9988) recording the largest net inflow at HK$1.98bn, followed by Tencent Holdings (0700); China Mobile (0941) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$790mn, followed by Xiaomi Group-W (1810).
Leung Kai Tong is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/ADU276/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.
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