KGI Asia Commentary

2023.01.16 09:00

Hang Seng Index rose 224 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 91 points higher last Friday to 21,605 points. The trend fluctuated and closed at 21,738 points, up 224 points. The China Enterprises Index rose 79 points to 7,391 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 68 points to 4,554 points. The market turnover of the whole day was HK$133 billion. Meituan (3690) fell 1%, Tencent (700) rose 2%, and Alibaba (9988) rose 1.7%. In addition, WuXi Biologics (2269) surged over 6%, and Koolearn (1797) rose 15% to break the peak.

 

Consumer sentiment rise, U.S. Banks released earnings, Concerned about future economic outlook

The United States announced that the latest initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in January rose to 64.6, higher than market expectations and a new high since April 2022. The initial value of the current situation index rose to 68.6, and the initial value of the outlook index rose to 62, both of which were higher than market expectations. On the other hand, consumer inflation expectations also fell further by 0.4 percentage points to 4% from 4.4% in the previous month.

In addition to economic data, several US banks also announced their results accordingly. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) revenue and net profit rose 17% and 6%, respectively, better than expected. But JPMorgan Chairman Jamie Dimon pointed out, "Although the US economy is still strong. But it is uncertain the ultimate impact of negative factors such as geopolitical tensions and unprecedented quantitative tightening.".

Although some still exceed expectations, there are still concerns about the future economic outlook. The 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 3.505%. In terms of indexes, the index rose 112 points or 0.3% to 34,302 points; the Nasdaq rose 78 points or 0.7% to 11,079 points; the index rose 15 points or 0.4% to 3,999 points.

 

The Financial Market Department of the People Bank of China stated rectification of large platforms are soon to come to an end

Ant Group has new news. Recently, the person in charge of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China said that since the consolidation, it has guided 14 large platform companies to make rectifications for a series of issues, indicating that the target has are finalizing. Also reflects that the arrangement of regulatory measures is coming to an end. We expected that the next step will be to promote the development of the platform economy under the regulatory framework and promote enterprises to improve their technological innovation capabilities and service quality and efficiency.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$2.042 bn on Friday, of which Tencent (0700) had the largest net inflow of HK$840 mn; followed by China Mobile (941). China Construction Bank (939) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$240 mn, followed by Innovent Biologics (1801).

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Although the international situation became tense due to Russia-Ukraine relations last year, the performance of gold was not good. Because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates rapidly last year, gold had no yield (yield), so the interest rate can be regarded as the opportunity cost of holding gold. The sharp rise of interest rate has greatly reduced the attractiveness of gold. On the contrary, although the interest rate remains high this year, the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of interest rate hike, and the cost of holding gold will increase at a slower rate. Coupled with the rising risk of global recession, gold will play a significant role as a safe haven. Investors who are optimistic about the price of gold may consider deploying through gold ETFs, including SPDR Gold ETF (2840.HK). The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) adopted the LBMA Gold Price PM as the reference benchmark price of gold in calculating the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Trust. By buying and selling physical gold to support the issuance of ETF shares, the ETF price movement match with the gold price movement. Target price: $1,510; Stop- Loss price: $1,330

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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