KGI Asia Commentary

2023.05.24 09:00

HSI fell 246 points on Tuesday

The Hang Seng Index fell 246 points or 1.3% to 19,431 on Tuesday. HSTECH fell 51 points or 1.3% to 3,852 and HSCEI fell 90 points or 1.3% to 6,603. Daily market turnover was HK$86.3bn.

Wall Street ends lower as uncertainty persists

The S&P 500 fell 1.12% to close at 4,145.58 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.26% to close at 12,560.25. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 231.07 points, or 0.69%, to 33,055.51. Technology stocks were among the worst performers of the day, with Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft leading losses, pressured by surging U.S. Treasury yields. Elsewhere, Apple shares fell 1.5% after announcing a multibillion-dollar chip production deal with Broadcom. Broadcom shares rose 1.2%. Shares of retailers were broadly lower, though Lowe's Companies Inc closed up nearly 1.6% after reporting first-quarter results that topped estimates, but lowered its full-year forecast on weaker consumers and lower lumber prices. Casino stocks Caesars, MGM and Wynn were all down more than 5% in the final hour before the close on Tuesday. Bloomberg reported Monday morning, citing a senior health official, that China could peak at 65 million infections per week during the next wave of the outbreak in late June. Regional bank shares rose from the previous day, boosted by a 7% rise in PacWest Bancorp shares. The U.S. bank announced earlier this week that it would sell $2.6 billion in loans to bolster its finances. The central bank's “liquidity backstop should be available whenever" as long as banks need it, Dallas Fed President Logan said on Tuesday. A day earlier, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he expected two rate hikes would be needed to curb inflation. Elsewhere, the energy sector was the only sector to gain ground, with Saudi Arabia's energy minister warning speculators against shorting oil, sparking the prospect of further production cuts, sending oil prices up 1%. On the economic front, service sector activity rose more than expected in April to a 12-month high, likely pushing up inflation.

 

Debt Ceiling discussions have not made new progress

Lawmakers in the U.S. Congress have yet to reach an agreement on how to raise the U.S. government's debt ceiling after another round of negotiations. With just days left until June 1, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the U.S. may not be able to repay its debt. Both Biden and McCarthy, however, were optimistic about reaching a deal to avoid default.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$5.05bn on Tuesday, of which Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$2.1bn; followed by HSCEI ETF  (2828). CCB (939) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.36bn, followed by SMIC (981).

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BYD announced that its NEV sales volume grew 91.8% to 762k units over the first four months of this year. Despite the price cut of the industry, BYD’s sales was better than expected, as it has a competitive brand and price positioning. At the same time, the gross profit margin has increased due to the decline in lithium prices. The GPM of BYD was at 17.9% in 1Q23, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to 1Q22. Looking ahead, the drop in lithium prices may lead to further improvement in gross profit in the second quarter, and the launch of BYD's new car models can further improve the product mix. The sales target of BYD for this year is 3 million vehicles, including overseas and mainland markets. Based on last year's overall sales volume of approximately 1.868 million vehicles, it is expected to increase by more than 60% year-on-year. Although the price war is the market concern, BYD's quarterly results and the customer feedback of the Shanghai Auto Show reflect that BYD is able to stand out from the crowd with its own strategy. Target price: $285; Stop- Loss price: $210.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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