Daily Investment Strategy
Daily focus：Topsports (6110)
Retail sales from September to November recorded a high single-digit year-on-year decline, but the decline narrowed significantly compared to the first half of the year. This reflects that against the backdrop of store contraction and weak demand, the company is gradually stabilizing its overall operating performance by optimizing its store structure and increasing its online presence. Inventory balance has decreased year-on-year, and the slower pace of store closures is conducive to the future recovery of gross profit margin and sales per square meter. However, December sales "significantly" deteriorated due to weak industry demand, a mild winter, and the postponement of the Lunar New Year, putting pressure on short-term profit expectations. The key in the medium term lies in Nike's strategic adjustment and in-depth cooperation with Topsports: the brand is increasing wholesale discounts, accelerating the recycling of old goods, and extending payment terms. Combined with tightening online self-operated discounts in China and increasing offline investment, this is expected to drive improvements in Topsports' gross profit margin, inventory structure, and cash flow. However, the company still needs to pay attention to industry demand fluctuations and brand competition risks.
US Q3 GDP Growth Unexpectedly Strong
The US Commerce Department released its final revised figure for third-quarter GDP, showing an unexpected annualized growth of 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations of 3.2%, primarily driven by strong consumer spending and export growth. This data directly propelled the S&P 500 index to a new record high. Macroeconomically, this demonstrates that in a high-interest-rate environment, the US economy is far more resilient than other major global economies, significantly reducing the risk of recession. However, signs of overheating combined with sticky inflation data suggest that the Federal Reserve lacks the urgency to aggressively cut interest rates, and bond yields may remain high and volatile, while limiting the scope for liquidity easing in emerging markets. Investors need to pay attention to whether corporate profit growth can sustainably absorb the valuation pressure brought by high interest rates.
Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HK$611 million on Tuesday, with Alibaba (9988) experiencing the largest net inflow at HK$1.36 billion, followed by Meituan (3690); China Mobile (0941) saw the largest net outflow at HK$1.98 billion, followed by Tencent Holdings (700).
Leung Kai Tong is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/ADU276/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.
The materials contained herein are provided by KGI Asia Limited ("KGI") for information only. While such materials are based on or derived from sources believed to be reliable, KGI makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) as to their accuracy or reliability. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitute, or are to be construed as, an offer or invitation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investments. KGI and its officers, employees, agents and affiliates may have interests in the securities or investments covered herein and accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or consequence whatsoever (whether direct or indirect) resulting from any use of or reliance by you on such materials.
