KGI Asia Commentary

2024.02.07 09:00

HSI rose 626 points on Tuesday

The Hang Seng Index rose 626 points or 4.0% to 16,136 on Tuesday. HSTECH rose 204 points or 6.7% to 3,243 and HSCEI rose 256 points or 4.9% to 5,473. Daily market turnover was HK$128.0bn.

 

S&P 500 closes just below record high as corporate earnings continue to be released

Stocks rose on Tuesday as Wall Street assessed the latest batch of corporate earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's timeline for cutting interest rates. The S&P 500 rose 0.23% to close at 4,954.23 points, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.07% to close at 15,609.00 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 141.24 points, or 0.37%, to close at 38,521.36 points. Palantir Technology Inc surged nearly 31% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue that beat estimates, while Spotify Technology Inc rose nearly 4% after beating expectations and reporting a premium subscriber increase. However, technology stocks were dragged down by weakness in semiconductor stocks, with Nvidia, AMD and Rambus leading the decline. Rambus fell 19% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue. Meanwhile, Fed officials continued to reiterate that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates because there is still work to be done to get inflation down to its 2% target. Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the latest six or three-month inflation data showed that inflation was "basically" at target, though cautioned that it is "not all the way there yet." 

 

Yellen says commercial real estate is a concern, but regulators are paying attention

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that although losses in commercial real estate are concerning, U.S. regulators are working to ensure that the financial system's loan- loss reserves and liquidity levels are sufficient to cope. Yellen told lawmakers Tuesday in the first of two days of congressional testimony this week, that a number of factors " is going to put a lot of stress on the owners of these properties " She cited rising interest rates, rising vacancies due to shifts in work patterns caused by the pandemic, and a wave of commercial real estate loans coming due this year. she said in response to a question from Missouri Democrat Emanuel Cleaver. “I believe it’s manageable, although there may be some institutions that are quite stressed by this problem.”

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net outflow of HK$6.8bn on Tuesday, of which China Telecom (728) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.13bn; followed by Innovent Bio (1801). Tracker Fund (2800) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$6.3bn, followed by HSCEI ETF (2828).

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Geopolitical tensions remain a key issue in 2024. The Israel-Hamas war shows no signs of abating. Meanwhile, media reports said Ukraine carried out a drone attack on one of Russia's largest refineries, expected to cripple the country's oil product exports. The prospect of tighter supplies could go some way to helping offset ongoing concerns about a slowdown in oil demand this year, especially given the China's sluggish economic recovery and the lagged impact of high U.S. interest rates. At the same time, the oil sector can be benefited from the market value management of SOEs. The State Council previously announced that it will further study the inclusion of market value management in the performance assessment of the persons in charge of central SOEs. SOEs responded in affirmation. They vowed to actively carry out value management and value dissemination activities, and will adopt market capitalization management tools on a regular basis to safeguard company value and enhance shareholders' returns. By incorporating market value management into the KPI of state-owned enterprise management, it may promote Chinese oil stocks to continue to increase their dividend payout ratios in the future. Bloomberg predicts PetroChina to have a dividend yield of approx. 8% in 2024, showing the investment value of the stock. Target price: $7; Stop- Loss price: $5.2.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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