KGI Asia Commentary

2024.03.20 09:00

Hang Seng Index fell 207 points on Tuesday

The Hang Seng Index fell 207 points or 1.2% to 16,529 on Tuesday. HSTECH fell 65 points or 1.8% to 3,528 and HSCEI fell 67 points or 1.2% to 5,780. Daily market turnover was HK$90.6bn.

 

The Dow closed up more than 300 points on Tuesday

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 320.33 points to close at 39,110.76 points, an increase of 0.83%. The S&P 500 rose 0.56% to close at 5,178.51 points, a record high. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq rose 0.39% to close at 16,166.79 points. Nvidia shares rose about 1.1%, recovering from early losses as investors assessed news of its first GTC conference. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced the latest artificial intelligence chip Blackwell, which he said is much more powerful than Nvidia's chips and can support a variety of artificial intelligence operations. Shares of Super Micro Computer, a major supplier of Nvidia's artificial intelligence servers, fell about 9% after news of a share offering. Energy stocks led the market higher, supported by oil prices rising to nearly four-month highs ahead of new crude oil inventory data due later this week. The American Petroleum Institute will release its estimate of crude oil inventories later in the session, ahead of a government oil report expected a day later. APA Inc., Baker Hughes Inc. and Devon Energy Inc. were among the top gainers.

 

Fed meeting kicks off

The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins on Tuesday, but markets expect rates to be unchanged. However, a recent spate of worrying inflation reports has investors worried that the Fed may signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected. U.S. Treasury yields fell despite concerns that the Federal Reserve may no longer dovish. On the economic front, housing activity continues to recover, with housing starts and building permits unexpectedly rise.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK6.92bn on Tuesday, of which Tencent (700) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.80bn; followed by BOC (3988). Kuaishou (1024) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.06bn, followed by Meituan (3690).

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Market forecasts that Tencent 4Q23 revenue to be at RMB157.36bn, increase 8.56% yoy and 1.77% qoq, mainly driven by advertising, and FinTech and Business services income. The market forecasts net profit to be at RMB41.46bn, compared with RMB29.71bn in 4Q22 and RMB44.92bn in 3Q23. In terms of segment business, the market expects value-added service revenue to be at RMB72.01bn, increase by 2.2% yoy but fell by 4.92% qoq. The market has long been expecting the growth rate of game segment to slow down in the fourth quarter, affected by the high base of international games and factors such as the off-season. The market will pay attention to management's views on the potential impact of the latest game regulation, the development of local and international game business in the current quarter, and the progress of games to be launched in the future. In addition, the market expects advertising revenue to reach RMB28.32bn, increase by 14.8% yoy and 10.12% qoq. This is mainly driven by the continuous monetization of video accounts. The market expects FinTech and Business services revenue to be at RMB54.82bn, increase by 16.1% yoy and 5.34% qoq. Our target price is temporarily maintained at HKD400. We will update our view after the result announcement. Currently, Tencent's economic moat remains, and investors may consider entry before result announcement and setting a stop-loss price. Target price: $400; Stop- Loss price: $259.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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