2025.10.17
Rising risk of regional bank loan defaults has triggered market risk aversion

Daily focusWeichai Power (2338)

According to the latest operating data, J&T Express demonstrated strong growth momentum in the third quarter of 2025, with total parcel volume reaching 7.677 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. Southeast Asia was particularly impressive, with parcel volume increasing significantly by 78.7% year-on-year to 1.997 billion pieces. New markets also saw significant growth of 47.9%, reaching 104 million pieces. In contrast, growth in the Chinese market was more stable, with parcel volume increasing by 10.4% year-on-year to 5.576 billion pieces, reflecting the diversified development trends across different markets. Accelerated expansion in overseas markets became the core driving force this quarter. In Southeast Asia, the company's business volume grew rapidly, benefiting from intensified promotional activities by major e-commerce platforms and industry consolidation trends.

 

Rising risk of regional bank loan defaults has triggered market risk aversion

Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 6,629, down 0.6%. The credit crisis among regional banks continues to intensify. Zions Bancorp's stock price plummeted 13% after it took a $50mn provision for nonperforming loans. Western Alliance also disclosed in its quarterly earnings report that over $1bn in loans remain uncollected and filed fraud lawsuits against several borrowers, accusing them of misrepresenting their financial status to obtain loans. Furthermore, PacWest Bancorp will be forced to sell high-rated bonds to fill a capital gap due to narrowing spreads and a wave of withdrawals from corporate clients, causing its stock price to fall by more than 15%. The default rate on small and medium-sized enterprise loans and commercial real estate loans within these banks' portfolios has climbed to over 2%, a ten-year high. Growing market concerns about increased banking regulation, tightening credit, and rising capital costs may further drive capital flows into high-rated bonds and defensive sectors.

 

The Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HK$15.82bn on Thursday, with Zijin Gold International (2259) receiving the largest net inflow of HK$1.74bn, followed by Xiaomi Group (1810). Meanwhile, SMIC (0981) saw the largest net outflow of HK$300mn, followed by Juzi Biotechnology (2367).

2025.10.17
Market Roundup

Hong Kong stocks weakened sharply throughout the day amidst rising China-US trade tensions. The Hang Seng Index opened higher before reversing course, extending its losses to over 700 points in the afternoon, bringing its total loss to 25,247 points, down 641 points, or 2.48%, and falling below the key 25,300 level. The H-share Index fell 247 points, or 2.67%, to 9,012 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index performed the worst, falling 243 points, or 4.05%, to 5,760 points. Total market turnover for the day was approximately HK$314.6 billion. Chip stocks led the decline, with ZTE (763) plunging over 12%, SMIC (981) down 7%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347) down 7%.

Source: KGI Investment Products and Solutions Department

The materials contained herein are provided by KGI Asia Limited ("KGI") for information only. While such materials are based on or derived from sources believed to be reliable, KGI makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) as to their accuracy or reliability. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitute, or are to be construed as, an offer or invitation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investments. KGI and its officers, employees, agents and affiliates may have interests in the securities or investments covered herein and accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or consequence whatsoever (whether direct or indirect) resulting from any use of or reliance by you on such materials.

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