Daily focus：Fast Retailing Group (6288)
2025 profits will be supported by cost reductions and government subsidies rather than core growth. 4Q25 performance was lackluster, and sales have not improved since the beginning of 2026. The path to profit recovery in 2026 remains unclear due to increased Olympic-related expenses. Facing sluggish consumer sentiment and fierce competition, the increasingly sophisticated discount strategy will put pressure on gross margins. In the absence of clear catalysts, market uncertainty and execution risks remain the core challenges.
AI Valuation Repricing Under the Shadow of Chip Blockade
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,944 points on Thursday, with risk appetite recovering but the focus shifting to China's restrictions on the import of Nvidia's H200 chips. Reports indicate that Chinese customs have been informed that H200 imports are prohibited, and companies are advised against non-essential purchases, raising market concerns about disruptions to the supply schedule for AI servers and cloud capital expenditures. As the H200 is a high-end training chip, if the restrictions continue, Nvidia's visibility in the Chinese market will further decrease, dragging down valuation assumptions for upstream HBM memory, advanced packaging, and downstream computing power leasing, while also pushing up geopolitical discounts for tech stocks.
Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net outflow of HK$1.52bn on Thursday, with Alibaba-W (9988) recording the largest net inflow at HK$1.98bn, followed by Tencent Holdings (0700); China Mobile (0941) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$790mn, followed by Xiaomi Group-W (1810).
Hong Kong stock market rebounded after four consecutive days of gains, but then weakened. The HSI opened 27 points lower, briefly rose 207 points before turning down again, closing down 76 points or 0.3% at 26,923. The HSCEI fell 48 points or 0.5% to close at 9,266, and the HSTECH fell 79 points or 1.4% to close at 5,828. Total turnover for the day was HK$290.5bn. Alibaba launched its AI Assistant on its platform, while Alibaba (09988) to retreat 2.6%; Alibaba Health (0241) rebounded sharply by 7.8%. Ctrip is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for suspected monopolistic practices, causing its ADR to fall 17% overnight, and Ctrip (9961) to drop 19.2% for the day.
Source: KGI Investment Products and Solutions Department
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CES 2026 will focus on three main themes: AI, digital health, and automotive solutions. These can be summarized as more concrete AI applications, extending from the cloud to more edge computing platforms, including AI PC, humanoid robots, and the integration of AI into automobiles and smart home appliances. Among these, NVIDIA's Rubin chip will enter mass production...